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¡¡Ãæ¹ñ¤Ï¡Èsocialism with Chinese characteristics¡É¡ÊÃæ¹ñ¤ÎÆÿ§¤¢¤ë¼Ò²ñ¼çµÁ¡Ë¤òɸ¤Ü¤¦¤·¤Æ¤¤¤ë¡£¤·¤«¤·¡¢£²£°Ç¯°Ê¾åÁ°¤Îɸ¸ì¤Ï¤¤¤Þ¤ä¿§¤¢¤»¡¢¡Ècapitalism with Chinese characteristics¡É¡ÊÃæ¹ñ¤ÎÆÿ§¤¢¤ë»ñËܼçµÁ¡Ë¤È¤ä¤æ¤µ¤ì¤ë¤è¤¦¤Ë¤Ê¤Ã¤Æµ×¤·¤¤¡£¤³¤Îɸ¸ì¤Î¸À¤¤´¹¤¨¤ÎºÇ¿·ÈǤϡ¢ÊÆ¥¨¡¼¥ëÂç³Ø·ÐºÑ³Ø¶µ¼ø¤Î¥°¥¹¥¿¥Õ¡¦¥é¥Ë¥¹¤Î¡ÈDutch Disease with Special Chinese Characteristics¡É¡ÊÃæ¹ñ¤ÎÆÿ§¤¢¤ë¥ª¥é¥ó¥ÀÉ¡ˤÀ¡£¡ÊÄ»µï±ÑÀ²¡Ë¡¡
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¡¡¡ÖÃæ¹ñ¤ÎÆÿ§¤¢¤ë¼Ò²ñ¼çµÁ¡×¤È¤¤¤¦É½¸½¤Ïûý¾®Ê¿¤¬£±£¹£¸£²Ç¯£¹·î£±Æü¡¢Ãæ¹ñ¶¦»ºÅÞ£±£²²óÅÞÂç²ñ¤Î³«Ëë¤Î¸ÀÍդȤ·¤Æ½é¤á¤ÆÄ󾧤·¤¿¤â¤Î¤Ç¡¢Ãæ¹ñ¸ì¤Ç¤Ï¡ÖÍ­Ãæ¹ñÆÿ§¼Ò²ñ¼çµÁ¡×¡££±£¶²óÅÞÂç²ñ¡Ê£²£°£°£²Ç¯¡Ë°Ê¸å¤Ï¡¢¡ÖÍ­¡×¤¬ºï½ü¤µ¤ì¡ÖÃæ¹ñÆÿ§¼Ò²ñ¼çµÁ¡×¤Ë¤Ê¤Ã¤¿¡£ÆüËܸì¤ä±Ñ¸ì¤Ç¤Îɽ¸½¤ÏÊѤï¤Ã¤Æ¤¤¤Ê¤¤¤¬¡¢Èù̯¤Ê¥Ë¥å¥¢¥ó¥¹¤ÎÊѲ½¤Ï¤½¤ì°Ê¸å¤Ë¤È¤é¤ì¤¿À¯ºö¤ËÈ¿±Ç¤µ¤ì¤Æ¤¤¤ë¤è¤¦¤À¡£¡¡
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¡¡YaleGlobal¡Ê£¶·î£±£¹Æü¡Ë¤Ë·ÇºÜ¤µ¤ì¤¿¥é¥Ë¥¹¤Î¡ÈCapitalism with Special Chinese Characteristics¡É¡ÊÃæ¹ñ¤ÎÆÿ§¤¢¤ë»ñËܼçµÁ¡Ë¤ÈÂꤹ¤ëÏÀÀâ¤Ë¤è¤ë¤È¡¢Ãæ¹ñ¤Çµ¯¤­¤Æ¤¤¤ë¤µ¤Þ¤¶¤Þ¤ÊÌäÂê¤Î´ðËÜŪ¸¶°ø¤Ï¡¢Æüì¤ÊDutch Disease¡Ê¥ª¥é¥ó¥ÀÉ¡ˤǤ¢¤ë¤È¤¤¤¦¡£¡¡
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¡¡¥ª¥é¥ó¥ÀɤȤϡ¢Å·Á³»ñ¸»¤ÎÍ¢½Ð¤Ë¤è¤ê¤â¤¿¤é¤µ¤ì¤ëdeindustrialization¡Ê»º¶È¤Î¿êÂà¡Ë¤Çµ¯¤­¤ë·ÐºÑ´íµ¡¤ò»Ø¤¹¸ÀÍÕ¡£±Ñ¥¨¥³¥Î¥ß¥¹¥È»ï¤¬£±£¹£·£·Ç¯¤Ë̾ÉÕ¤±¤¿¡££±£¹£¶£°Ç¯Âå¤ËÅ·Á³¥¬¥¹¤¬È¯¸«¤µ¤ì¤¿¥ª¥é¥ó¥À¤Ï¡¢Å·Á³»ñ¸»¤Î²Á³Ê¤Î¹âÆ­¤Ë¤è¤êÇüÂç¤Ê³°²ß¤¬Î®Æþ¤·¡¢¼«¹ñÄ̲ߤ¬¹âÆ­¤·¤¿¡£À½Â¤¶È¤Ï¹ñºÝ¶¥ÁèÎϤò¼º¤¤¡¢ºâÀ¯ÀÖ»ú¤ÎÁýÂç¤Ê¤É¤Ë¤è¤ê¡¢¥ª¥é¥ó¥À¤Ï£±£¹£¸£°Ç¯ÂåÁ°È¾¤ËÄãÀ®Ä¹¤È¹â¤¤¼º¶ÈΨ¤È¤¤¤¦ÌäÂê¤ËľÌ̤·¤¿¡£¡¡
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¡¡But another version of that disease could be more relevant in China¡Çs case, one defined as the massive inflow of foreign exchange, from whatever source, adversely affecting decision-making throughout the body politic. The Chinese version of this phenomenon results from the continuing large-scale export surpluses caused by massive labor-intensive exports, associated with the maintenance of an undervalued exchange rate, and accompanied by large-scale foreign direct investment flows as well as some speculative portfolio capital.¡¡
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¡¡¡Ê¤·¤«¤·¡¢Ãæ¹ñ¤Î¥±¡¼¥¹¤Ç¤Ï¤³¤Îɵ¤¤ÎÊ̤Υ¿¥¤¥×¤Ç¤¢¤ë¡£ËÄÂç¤Ê³°²ß¤ÎήÆþ¤¬ÁÈ¿¥À¯¼£¤òÄ̤¸¤ÆÀ¯ºö·èÄê¤Ë°­±Æ¶Á¤òÍ¿¤¨¤Æ¤¤¤ë¤â¤Î¤ÈÄêµÁ¤Ç¤­¤ë¡£¤³¤Î¸½¾Ý¤ÎÃæ¹ñÈǤϡ¢ÂçÎ̤ÎϫƯ½¸Ì󷿤ÎÍ¢½Ð¤Ë¤è¤ëÂ絬ÌϤÊÍ¢½Ð¤Î¹õ»ú¤«¤é¤¯¤ë¤â¤Î¤Ç¡¢°ÙÂإ졼¥È¤òÄ㤯ÍÞ¤¨¡¢Å굡Ū¤Ê»ñ¶â¤äÂ絬ÌϤʳ°¹ñľÀÜÅê»ñ¤¬È¼¤Ã¤Æ¤¤¤ë¡Ë¡¡
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¡¡China¡Çs cumulative export surpluses since the late 1980s have amounted to $386 billion and inflows of FDI to $994 billion. With foreign-exchange reserves well above the $1 trillion mark, the Chinese government finds itself unable to cool down the boom -- investments currently still run at 40 percent of GDP -- all of which has led to lower levels of efficiency, i.e., falling rates of return and rising industrial capital-output ratios.¡¡
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¡¡¡ÊÃæ¹ñ¤Î£±£¹£¸£°Ç¯ÂåËö¤«¤é¤ÎÍ¢½Ð¤ÎÎßÀѹõ»ú¤Ï£³£¸£¶£°²¯¥É¥ë¤Ç¡¢³°¹ñľÀÜÅê»ñ¤ÎήÆþ¤Ï£¹£¹£´£°²¯¥É¥ë¤Ë㤹¤ë¡£³°²ß½àÈ÷¤Ï£±Ãû¥É¥ë°Ê¾å¤Ç¡¢Åê»ñ¤Ï£Ç£Ä£Ð¤Î£´£°¡ó¤Î¿å½à¤Ë¤¢¤ê¡¢Ãæ¹ñÀ¯ÉܤϷʵ¤¤òÎä¤ä¤¹¤³¤È¤¬¤Ç¤­¤Ê¤¤¤Ç¤¤¤ë¡£¤½¤ì¤é¤Ï¸úΨ¤ÎÄã²¼¤ò¾·¤¤¤¿¡£¤Ä¤Þ¤ê¡¢¥ê¥¿¡¼¥óΨ¤ÎÄã²¼¤È»ñËÜ¡¦»º½Ð¹âÈæΨ¤Î¾å¾º¤Ç¤¢¤ë¡Ë¡¡
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¡¡With saving rates nearing 50 percent and consumption continuing to lag as families worry about the need to finance their own health care and pensions down the road, we witness Beijing¡Çs inability to rein in local governments¡Ç continuing investment binges.¡¡
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¡¡¡Ê²ÈÄí¤Ï¾­Íè¤Î°åÎÅÈñ¤äǯ¶â¤ò¿´ÇÛ¤·¤Æ¡¢ÃùÃßΨ¤Ï£µ£°¡ó¶á¤¯¤¢¤ê¡¢¾ÃÈñ¤â¿­¤ÓǺ¤ó¤Ç¤¤¤ë¡£Ãæ±ûÀ¯ÉܤÏÃÏÊýÀ¯ÉܤÎÅê»ñ¤Î¶¸Áû¤ò¥³¥ó¥È¥í¡¼¥ë¤Ç¤­¤Ê¤¤¤Ç¤¤¤ë¡Ë¡¡
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¡¡In other words, this version of Dutch Disease is not caused by a natural-resource bonanza but massive labor-intensive exports plus large-scale capital imports, which affect not the exchange rate but the decision-making process.¡¡
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¡¡¡Ê¸À¤¤´¹¤¨¤ë¤È¡¢¤³¤Î¥¿¥¤¥×¤Î¥ª¥é¥ó¥ÀɤÏÅ·Á³»ñ¸»¤Ë¤è¤êµ¯¤³¤µ¤ì¤Æ¤¤¤ë¤Î¤Ç¤Ï¤Ê¤¯¡¢Â絬ÌϤÊϫƯ½¸Ì󷿤ÎÍ¢½Ð¤ÈËÄÂç¤Ê»ñËܤÎÍ¢Æþ¤Ç¤è¤Ã¤Æµ¯¤³¤µ¤ì¤Æ¤¤¤ë¡£¤½¤ì¤Ï°ÙÂإ졼¥È¤Ë±Æ¶Á¤»¤º¡¢À¯ºö·èÄê¥×¥í¥»¥¹¤Ë±Æ¶Á¤òµÚ¤Ü¤·¤Æ¤¤¤ë¡Ë¡¡
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¡¡Such an unremitting avalanche of foreign exchange in the presence of a relatively fixed and undervalued exchange rate plus weak financial-sector institutions not only renders the central authorities incapable of restraining the continuing investment boom, but also encourages rent-seeking, corruption and rural unrest, all publicly lamented and hopefully beginning to be addressed.¡¡
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¡¡¡Ê¤½¤Î¤è¤¦¤Ê³°²ß¤ÎÀ䤨´Ö¤Ê¤¤Î®Æþ¤Ï¡¢°ÙÂإ졼¥È¤¬¤Û¤Ü¸ÇÄꤵ¤ì¤Æ¡¢Ä㤯ÍÞ¤¨¤é¤ì¡¢¶âÍ»ÉôÌ礬¼åÂΤÊÃæ¡¢Ãæ±ûÅö¶É¤ÏÅê»ñ¥Ö¡¼¥à¤òÍÞÀ©¤Ç¤­¤Ê¤¤¤Ð¤«¤ê¤«¡¢Âß½ÐÀè¤òÁܤ¹¤³¤È¤ä¡¢±ø¿¦¡¢ÃÏÊý¤ÎÁûÍð¤ò¾·¤¤¤Æ¤¤¤ë¡£¤½¤ì¤é¤Ï¸ø¤Ëò¤«¤ï¤·¤¤¤³¤È¤È¤µ¤ì¡¢¼è¤êÁȤߤ¬»Ï¤Þ¤Ã¤Æ¤¤¤ë¤¬¡Ë¡¡
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¡¡Momentum for reform is difficult if most important actors see little reason to overcome a comfortable state of inertia. Quite the opposite, the continued accumulation of reserves provides incentives for influence peddling and inefficient investment activity.¡¡
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¡¡¡ÊºÇ¤â½ÅÍפʴط¸¼Ô¤¬¸½¾õ¤ËËþ­¤·¤Æ¡¢¤½¤Î¾õÂÖ¤ò¹îÉþ¤·¤è¤¦¤È¤·¤Ê¤¤¤Ê¤é¡¢²þ³×¤Î¤Ï¤º¤ß¤¬¤Ä¤¯¤Î¤ÏÆñ¤·¤¤¡£¤½¤ÎÈ¿ÂФˡ¢³°²ß½àÈ÷¤ÎÎßÀѤÏÍø±×ͶƳ¤äÈó¸úΨ¤ÊÅê»ñ³èÆ°¤Ø¤ÎͶ°ú¤Ë¤Ê¤ë¡Ë¡¡
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¡¡In other words, a massive reserve build-up makes it politically difficult to change policy. No urgent pressure emerges, and few want to offend politically powerful stakeholders.¡¡
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¡¡¡Ê¸À¤¤´¹¤¨¤ë¤È¡¢ËÄÂç¤Ê³°²ß½àÈ÷¤ÎÀѤ߾夲¤ÏÀ¯ºö¤òÊѤ¨¤ë¤³¤È¤òÀ¯¼£Åª¤ËÆñ¤·¤¯¤¹¤ë¡£ÀÚÇ÷¤·¤¿°µÎϤ¬À¸¤Þ¤ì¤Ê¤±¤ì¤Ð¡¢Ã¯¤âÀ¯¼£Åª¤Ë¶¯ÎϤÊÍø³²´Ø·¸¼Ô¤Îµ¡·ù¤ò»¤Í¤¿¤¯¤Ê¤¤¡Ë¡¡
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¡¡What emerges is the phenomenon of ¡Ècrony socialism¡É or, as I¡Çm sure Beijing would prefer, ¡ÈDutch Disease with Special Chinese Characteristics.¡É¡¡
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¡¡¡ÈMercantilism with Chinese characteristics¡É (Ãæ¹ñ¤ÎÆÿ§¤¢¤ë½Å¾¦¼çµÁ)¤È¤¤¤¦¸À¤¤Êý¤â¤¢¤ë¡£¥¨¥³¥Î¥ß¥¹¥È»ï¤¬¤½¤¦¤·¤¿¸«½Ð¤·¤Îµ­»ö¤ò·ÇºÜ¤·¤¿¤Î¤Ï£²£°£°£³Ç¯£¸·î£±£³Æü¡£¡¡
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¡¡Mercantilism¡Ê½Å¾¦¼çµÁ¡Ë¤Ï£±£¶À¤µª¤«¤é£±£¸À¤µª¤Î²¤½£¤Ç¹­¤¬¤Ã¤¿·ÐºÑ»×ÁÛ¡£³°¹ñËǰפò½Å»ë¤·¡¢Ëǰפˤè¤Ã¤ÆÆÀ¤é¤ì¤ë¶â²ßʾ¤³¤½¹ñ¤ÎºÇ¤â½ÅÍפÊÉ٤Ǥ¢¤ë¤È¤ß¤Ê¤·¤¿¡£¹ñÆâ¤Î»º¶È¤òÊݸ¡¢¸¶ÎÁ¶¡µë¹ñ¤ò³ÎÊݤ·¡¢Í¢½Ð¤òÁý¤ä¤·¤ÆÍ¢Æþ¤ò¸º¤é¤¹¤³¤È¤òÄɵᤷ¤¿¡£Êƹñ¤Ï£±£¹£¸£°Ç¯Âå¤ÎÆüËܤÎËÇ°×À¯ºö¤â½Å¾¦¼çµÁ¤È¤ß¤Ê¤·¤¿¡£¡¡
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¡¡£²£°£°£¶Ç¯£´·î£±£¹Æü¤Î¥Ë¥å¡Ý¥è¡¼¥¯¡¦¥¿¥¤¥à¥º»æ¤Ë¥Ç¥Ó¥Ã¥É¡¦¥µ¥ó¥¬¡¼¤Ë¤è¤ë¡ÉChina's Rising Need for Oil Is High on U.S. Agenda¡È¡ÊÃæ¹ñ¤ÎÀÐÌý¼ûÍפιâ¤Þ¤ê¤ÏÊƹñ¤ÎÂ礭¤ÊµÄÂê¡Ë¤È¤¤¤¦µ­»ö¤ËÃæ¹ñ¤Î¡Ö½Å¾¦¼çµÁ¡×¤Ë¤Ä¤¤¤Æ¤Î¶½Ì£¿¼¤¤¥¨¥Ô¥½¡¼¥É¤¬¾Ò²ð¤µ¤ì¤Æ¤¤¤ë¡£¡¡
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¡¡Mr. Green, who left the National Security Council in December, recalled a visit from a senior Chinese official who tried to explain that China was only seeking business deals, and was not trying to influence countries where it was doing business.¡¡
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¡¡''He used the example of Sudan and he said, 'Look, you know, we don't care about internal issues like genocide, we only care about the oil because we need the resources.' ''¡¡
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¡¡''And I said, 'Well look, that's mercantilism.' And the Chinese translator had trouble translating ''mercantilism'' and they had a big debate about it, and we figured it out. And then they had a big debate about whether I meant that as a good thing or a bad thing.''¡¡
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¡¡¡Ê¡Ö¤½¤ì¤Ç¤ï¤¿¤·¤Ï¸À¤Ã¤¿¡£¡Ø¤¤¤¤¤Ç¤¹¤«¡£¤½¤ì¤Ïmercantilism¤Ç¤¹¡Ù¡£Ãæ¹ñ¿ÍÄÌÌõ¤¬''mercantilism''¤ò¤É¤¦Ìõ¤·¤Æ¤¤¤¤¤Î¤«ÅöÏǤ·¤Æ¡¢Èà¤é¤ÏÂçµÄÏÀ¤Ë¤Ê¤Ã¤¿¡£¤ï¤ì¤ï¤ì¤¬¶µ¤¨¤ë¤È¡¢Èà¤é¤Ï¤ï¤¿¤·¤¬Îɤ¤°ÕÌ£¤Ç»È¤Ã¤¿¤Î¤«¡¢°­¤¤°ÕÌ£¤Ç»È¤Ã¤¿¤Î¤«¤ò¤á¤°¤Ã¤ÆÂçµÄÏÀ¤Ë¤Ê¤Ã¤¿¡×¡Ë¡¡
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¡¡In the case of China, the term is increasingly employed to paint a picture of a 21st-century version of the Great Game, the 19th-century maneuvering for primacy in Central Asia, in which China's search for oil is merging with its desire for greater influence, from Africa to Latin America to the Middle East.¡¡
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U.S.-Japan Alliance: Getting Asia Right through2020)¡×¡Ê¿·¥¢¡¼¥ß¥Æ¡¼¥¸¡¦¥ì¥Ý¡¼¥È¡Ë¤Ç¤â¡¢Ãæ¹ñ¤Î½Å¾¦¼çµÁ¤ËÂФ¹¤ë·Ù²ü´¶¤¬¼¨¤µ¤ì¤Æ¤¤¤ë¡£¡¡
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¡¡The modernization and growth of China will insure its power and affluence, but the direction it takes remains an open question. In 2020, China could be a responsible stakeholder, with increased political freedoms and liberal institutions that support economic openness and make for more responsible treatment of its people and its neighbors. On the other hand, China¡Çs conduct could be marked by mercantilism, with illiberal institutions, chauvinistic nationalism, and corruption that distort international norms and threaten neighbors.¡¡
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¡¡"The Coming China Wars"¡ÊÍè¤ë¤Ù¤­Ãæ¹ñ¤ÎÀïÁè¡Ë¤ÎÃø¼Ô¤Ç¤¢¤ë¥Ê¥Ð¥í¤Ï±Ñ¥Õ¥£¥Ê¥ó¥·¥ã¥ë¡¦¥¿¥¤¥à¥º»æ¡Ê£¶·î£²£°Æü¡Ë¤ËÅê½ñ¤·¡¢¼¡¤Î¤è¤¦¤Ë½Ò¤Ù¤Æ¤¤¤ë¡£¡¡
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¡¡The root cause of today's global trade imbalances is a 19th century Chinese mercantilism that begins with a grossly undervalued currency that acts as a tariff on US exports and that has forced other Asian nations, particularly Japan, to likewise engage in currency manipulation (albeit more indirectly).¡¡
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¡¡Beyond currency manipulation, Chinese mercantilism extends to a complex web of export subsidies and tax preferences that violate the rules of the World Trade Organisation; rampant counterfeiting and piracy that provide material cost advantages for Chinese exporters; and lax environmental and health and safety regulations that likewise provide unfair cost advantages.¡¡
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¡¡Thanks to currency manipulation, 2 million US manufacturing jobs have been lost, and US gross domestic product is about $250 billion lower than it would otherwise be. Also, potential GDP growth is a full percentage point lower than the 4% a year it could be. The resulting costs far exceed any benefits Americans receive from cheap coffee tables and television sets at Wal-Mart.¡¡
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¡¡The essential political problem in the United States is that immediate and visible costs imposed by Chinese mercantilism are most concentrated on perhaps less than 25% of the population, while the benefits, though smaller in total, are broadly available to most voters.¡¡
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¡¡°ìÊý¡¢¡ÈNeoliberalism with Chinese Characteristics¡É¡ÊÃæ¹ñ¤ÎÆÿ§¤¢¤ë¿·¼«Í³¼çµÁ¡Ë¤È̿̾¤·¤¿¤Î¤Ï¥Ë¥å¡¼¥è¡¼¥¯»ÔΩÂç³Ø¤Î·ÐºÑÃÏÍý³Ø¶µ¼ø¤Ç¥Þ¥ë¥¯¥¹¼çµÁ¼Ô¤Î¥Ç¥Ó¥Ã¥É¡¦¥Ï¡¼¥Ù¥¤¡£¡ÉA Brief History of Neoliberalism¡É¡Ê£²£°£°£µÇ¯´©¡£Ë®Ìõ¡Ø¿·¼«Í³¼çµÁ¡Ù¡Ë¤Ç¿·¼«Í³¼çµÁ¤ò¤³¤¦ÄêµÁ¤·¤Æ¤¤¤ë¡£¡¡
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¡¡Neoliberalism is in the first instance a theory of political and economic practices that proposes that human well-being can best be advanced by liberating individual entrepreneurial freedoms and skills within an institutional framework characterized by strong private property rights, free markets, and free trade.¡¡
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